Xinran (Ryan) Dai
PhD Candidate · School of Risk & Actuarial Studies · UNSW Business School · Sydney, Australia
Welcome! I am a final-year PhD candidate in Risk and Actuarial Studies at the University of New South Wales, Sydney. My research sits at the intersection of actuarial science, mathematical finance, and environmental economics. I am very fortunate to be advised by Prof. Qihe Tang, A/Prof. Han Li, and A/Prof. Henry Lam.
Research Interests
Climate Change and Insurance · Carbon Pricing · Integrated Assessment Modeling · Uncertainty
Climate Risk
Carbon Pricing
Insurance
Stochastic Modeling
Integrated Assessment
Uncertainty
Education
UNSW Sydney · Ph.D. in Risk and Actuarial Studies, 2023–Present
Supervisors: Prof. Qihe Tang, A/Prof. Han Li, A/Prof. Henry Lam
Supervisors: Prof. Qihe Tang, A/Prof. Han Li, A/Prof. Henry Lam
SWUFE · M.A. in Mathematical Finance, 2019–2022
Supervisor: Prof. Jingtang Ma
Supervisor: Prof. Jingtang Ma
SWUFE · B.S. in Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, 2015–2019
SWUFE · B.A. in Economics, 2015–2019
Research
Working Papers
Pricing Carbon under the Emissions Trading System
Ryan Dai, Henry Lam, and Qihe Tang
As climate change threats intensify, climate mitigation has become a central focus of government policy. This paper develops a multi-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy to examine the effects of a regional emissions trading system. The economy features multiple energy input sectors that produce either brown or green energy, as well as a final output sector that produces aggregate goods. Both the input and output sectors require energy for production, but only brown energy generates emissions upon use. Emission permits are initially allocated across sectors and then traded in a competitive permit market. We show that the carbon price emerges as the shadow value of the emissions cap in the social planner's problem and, equivalently, as the equilibrium permit price in the decentralized market. We further incorporate a penalty term that captures the region's environmental contribution. The social preference is revised to include both pecuniary and non-pecuniary benefits of emissions reductions. Comparing outcomes in the penalized and unpenalized economies highlights the economic role of this penalty.
Social Value of Insurance
Ryan Dai and Qihe Tang
We develop a tractable continuous-time general equilibrium model to study the social value of insurance (SVI) under rare disaster risk. In the model, capital is subject to diffusion risk and Poisson-driven jump losses, a subset of which is insurable. The social planner chooses investment and insurance coverage to maximize welfare under recursive preferences. We define the social value of insurance via a utility-indifference measure that makes an uninsured economy welfare-equivalent to an insured economy. In the baseline calibration with known disaster parameters, access to insurance is equivalent to a 7.25% increase in the economy's capital stock. We further show that deep uncertainty about disasters substantially amplifies this value. Specifically, uncertainty harms the uninsured economy disproportionately more than the insured economy, because insurance stabilizes welfare across alternative disaster regimes.
Multi-Regional Integrated Assessment under Jump Risk and Uncertainty
Ryan Dai and Qihe Tang
The world we live in is undergoing rapid and unprecedented changes, fraught with multi-layered uncertainties. One of the driving forces behind this is climate change. Adaptation and mitigation are two commonly used approaches for combating climate change. We consider a regional integrated climate-economy (RICE) model in which climate damages are categorized into chronic and acute ones. Regions highly vulnerable to climate disasters often prioritize adaptation over mitigation, which reduces global efforts to combat climate change. We derive the optimal regional adaptation and mitigation expenditures under this RICE model. In doing so, we account for multi-layered uncertainties, which raise both adaptation and mitigation expenditures and increase the global social cost of carbon. Extensive numerical studies are conducted to illustrate our theoretical findings.
Conference Talks
202629th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, SungKyunkwan University, Seoul, 29 June to 3 July 2026 (Scheduled)
Social Value of Insurance
Social Value of Insurance
20262026 UNSW Workshop on Risk and Actuarial Frontiers: Climate Risk & Insurance, UNSW Sydney, 22 May 2026
Pricing Carbon under the Emissions Trading System (with Prof. Qihe Tang)
Pricing Carbon under the Emissions Trading System (with Prof. Qihe Tang)
2025Climate Risk & Finance 2025, Macquarie University, Sydney
Pricing Carbon under Emissions Trading Systems (with Prof. Qihe Tang)
Pricing Carbon under Emissions Trading Systems (with Prof. Qihe Tang)
2025Australasian Actuarial Education & Research Symposium, UNSW Sydney
Pricing Carbon Emission Permits under the Cap-and-trade Policy
Pricing Carbon Emission Permits under the Cap-and-trade Policy
202528th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, University of Tartu, Estonia
Multi-Regional Integrated Assessment under Jump Risk and Uncertainty
Multi-Regional Integrated Assessment under Jump Risk and Uncertainty
2024Australasian Actuarial Education & Research Symposium, Monash Business School, Melbourne
Multi-Regional Integrated Assessment under Jump Risk and Uncertainty
Multi-Regional Integrated Assessment under Jump Risk and Uncertainty
202427th International Congress on Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, UIUC & DePaul University, United States
Pricing Carbon Emission Permits under the Cap-and-trade Policy
Pricing Carbon Emission Permits under the Cap-and-trade Policy
2023Australasian Actuarial Education & Research Symposium, Victoria University of Wellington
Pricing Carbon Emission Permits under the Cap-and-trade Policy
Pricing Carbon Emission Permits under the Cap-and-trade Policy
Teaching
UNSW Sydney — Tutor
RISK5001 · Fundamentals of Risk and Risk Management
Terms 1&2, 2024; Terms 1–3, 2025
Student evaluations: 5.7, 5.9, 5.8, 5.8
RISK5002 · Risk Analytics
Term 3, 2024
Student evaluation: 5.8
SWUFE — Teaching Assistant
Mathematical Analysis
Semesters 2019–2022
Linear Algebra
Semester 1, 2019–2020
Academic Service
Refereeing
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics
2023–Present
1 paper (2023) · 1 (2024) · 3 (2025) · 2 (2026)
SCIENCE CHINA Mathematics
2024–Present
1 paper (2024) · 2 (2025) · 1 (2026)
Coordination
PhD Seminar Coordinator
School of Risk & Actuarial Studies, UNSW Sydney · Feb–Dec 2025
Awards & Scholarships
UNSW Tuition Fee Scholarship (TFS)2023–2026
UNSW School of Risk & Actuarial Studies PhD Research Fund2023–2025
UNSW Business School Development and Research Training Grant2023–2024
Provincial Outstanding Graduate, Sichuan Province2022
Outstanding Postgraduate Award, SWUFE2019–2022
Zhuxin Scholarship, SWUFE2021
Grants
Australian Research Council Discovery Project
ARC DP250100078 · Research Assistant · $538,596 AUD
Lead CI: Prof. Qihe Tang · CI: Prof. Elise Payzan-LeNestour · PI: Prof. Jose Blanchet